Kan temperaturdata som säger att en tropisk ö befinner sig på fryspunkten, att städer är på kokpunkten och att båtar finns på land verkligen ligga till grund för IPCCs beräkningar? Svaret är ja, tydligen.
Det är klimatforskaren John McLean som slår larm om hur uselt dataunderlag som IPCC har för sina rekonstruktioner av temperaturutvecklingen under de senaste dryga hundra åren. Det verkar inte som vare sig IPCC eller de ansvariga som samlat ihop mätningarna, UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre och Climatic Research Unit vid University of East Anglia, brytt sig om någon kvalitetskontroll. Det läggs miljarder på denna forskning men ändå slipper stora slarvfel igenom:
- The Hadley data is one of the most cited, most important databases for climate modeling, and thus for policies involving billions of dollars.
- McLean found freakishly improbable data, and systematic adjustment errors, large gaps where there is no data, location errors, Fahrenheit temperatures reported as Celsius, and spelling errors.
- Almost no quality control checks have been done: outliers that are obvious mistakes have not been corrected – one town in Columbia spent three months in 1978 at an average daily temperature of over 80 degrees C. One town in Romania stepped out from summer in 1953 straight into a month of Spring at minus 46°C. These are supposedly “average” temperatures for a full month at a time. St Kitts, a Caribbean island, was recorded at 0°C for a whole month, and twice!
- Temperatures for the entire Southern Hemisphere in 1850 and for the next three years are calculated from just one site in Indonesia and some random ships.
- Sea surface temperatures represent 70% of the Earth’s surface, but some measurements come from ships which are logged at locations 100km inland. Others are in harbors which are hardly representative of the open ocean.
- When a thermometer is relocated to a new site, the adjustment assumes that the old site was always built up and “heated” by concrete and buildings. In reality, the artificial warming probably crept in slowly. By correcting for buildings that likely didn’t exist in 1880, old records are artificially cooled. Adjustments for a few site changes can create a whole century of artificial warming trends.
Gory details of the worst outliers
- For April, June and July of 1978 Apto Uto (Colombia, ID:800890) had an average monthly temperature of 81.5°C, 83.4°C and 83.4°C respectively.
- The monthly mean temperature in September 1953 at Paltinis, Romania is reported as -46.4 °C (in other years the September average was about 11.5°C).
- At Golden Rock Airport, on the island of St Kitts in the Caribbean, mean monthly temperatures for December in 1981 and 1984 are reported as 0.0°C. But from 1971 to 1990 the average in all the other years was 26.0°C.
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