AGW och fler stormar ingen självklarhet

Enligt Stanley Goldenberg, meteorolog vid National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), finns det många meteorologer som anser att varken antalet stormar eller deras intensitet har ökat till följd av senaste århundradets klimatförändring, framför allt när gäller Atlanten.

“There are some who have done studies that do claim a link, [but] virtually all those studies have been heavily rebutted by others in the hurricane community,” he noted. “In my opinion, the flaw in those studies is an improper utilization of historical databases.  I have been a specialist in hurricane climate data for close to three decades, and others who know the databases well agree with what I am saying.”

“The biggest fallacy is that people think that a hurricane feeds off a warm ocean, and if the ocean gets warmer, we will have more intense hurricanes,” he explained.  “But there are other factors involved, such as vertical wind shear, which is the difference between the upper and lower layers of the atmosphere.  You could also have drier air.  These are far more critical factors than the ocean being warmer.

“Everything else being equal, if you warm the ocean under a storm, you might get a stronger storm—but everything else is not equal,” said Mr. Goldenberg.  “Warming may increase vertical shear and therefore inhibit storms.  The ocean itself warming is such a little effect.”

AGW då? Är det människans koldioxidutsläpp som driver klimatförändring? Nja, enligt Stanley Goldenberg är det långt ifrån alla forskare som anser så.

“I did not say if there is global warming, it would be man-made,” Mr. Goldenberg emphasized.  “Not all scientists agree that the warming we’ve seen is necessarily anthropogenic.  It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.”

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