James Hansen har ju tyvärr fått rollen av allmän driftkuku här på TCS under åren, tack vare sina alarmistiska prognoser alltsedan klimatfrågans begynnelse. Han har ifrågasatts för sin ursprungliga prognos som startade alarmismen, sin temperaturdatastatistik som tycks ha justerats på ett märkligt sätt, sin aktivism (inkluderande arrestering och allmänna okvädningsord mot “skeptiker”) samt en bok “The Storms of my Grandchildren”. Och märkliga intervjusvar på bl.a. SVT, där han alltid framställts som en ständig ikon och profet. Den som vill läsa mer i frågan kan exempelvis använda TCS sökfunktion på hans namn.
Nu har det märkliga hänt att Hansen i åtminstone ett avseende gjort en tvärvändning. TWTW skriver följande kommentar i sitt senaste utskick:
- James Hansen: The most iconic scientist in global warming / climate change establishment is James Hansen of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NASA-GISS). With two colleagues he published a paper this week stating: “The 5-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slowdown in the growth rate of the net climate forcing.” In spite of the statement, Hansen asserts his belief that background warming is occurring, but the evidence is weak. The paper states: “The long-term warming trend, including continual warming since the mid-1970s, has been conclusively associated with the predominant global climate forcing, human-made greenhouse gases,” citing the 2007 IPCC report. The paper also states that: “If solar irradiance were the dominant drive of climate change that most global warming contrarians believe, then a global cooling trend might be expected.” This is a misstatement because many carbon-dioxide-caused-global-warming skeptics recognize that there are forms of solar energy, other than irradiance, that may be involved and that has been made clear to Hansen. For a critique of the paper see the comments by David Whitehouse of GWPF. One may not always agree with Hansen’s conclusions or methodology, but at least he is demonstrating honesty and integrity in publishing the paper with the first quoted statement that will put him at odds with much of the climate establishment. One can only speculate if the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is preparing its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), will reach the same conclusion. If not, and if the IPCC continues claim that humans are causing unprecedented and dangerous global warming by emitting greenhouse gases (GHG), particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), and that the IPCC understands the causes of global warming / climate change, then the IPCC, once again, will demonstrate it is a political body not a scientific one. Although the second draft of AR5, including the summary for policymakers, has been leaked onto the internet, we do not know what the final draft will say. That is due to be released in September 2013. There are massive sums of money involved both for political policy and for the climate establishment to keep the global warming express on track. No doubt Hansen will come under intense pressure from the climate establishment and from politicians to retract or significantly modify the paper. Similarly, no doubt the research scientists of Britain’s MET Office are under intense pressure to retract or significantly modify their findings of no statistically significant global warming in the surface data for 16 years and their projections of no warming through 2017. Whatever the MET’s shortcomings, the integrity of the research scientists is to be admired. Please see links under Problems in the Orthodoxy and Challenging the Orthodoxy.
- (James Hansen Admits Global Temperature Standstill Is Real By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Jan 17, 2013 http://www.thegwpf.org/hansen-admit…Link to Paper by Hansen, Sato, & Ruedy, Global temperature Update Through 2012, Jan 15, 2013 http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/maili… )
Jo, man ska alltid beundra personer som kan ompröva en ståndpunkt man tycks ha låst sig till. Vetenskapen är ju trots allt sådan att sanningen slutligen kommer fram.
Det var Marie Curie som en gång sade något i stil med
- “Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less.”
Professor emeritus i Fysikalisk Kemi vid KTH. Klimatdebattör sedan 2003.